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Goldman Sachs has raised its U.S. recession probability from 20% to 35%, reflecting a significant shift in economic outlook, now incorporating a "stagflationary twist." The firm projects inflation to reach 3.5% in 2025 and GDP growth to slow to 1.0%. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of upcoming tariff announcements and key economic reports.
Elon Musk rallied support for conservative Brad Schimel at a Wisconsin town hall, emphasizing the mission of his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to eliminate waste and fraud in government spending. He argued that reducing waste could help curb inflation and defended DOGE against constitutional criticisms. Musk also discussed his significant financial contributions to the state's Supreme Court race, including $1 million checks to voters, despite legal challenges from the Democratic attorney general.
Goldman Sachs anticipates a 15% average reciprocal tariff on all US trading partners to be announced by President Trump on April 2, potentially adjusted to a 9 percentage point increase due to product and country exclusions. The firm warns that these higher tariffs could elevate inflation, pushing core PCE inflation forecasts to 3.5% year-on-year and leading to a GDP growth downgrade to 1% for 2025. Consequently, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%, with a 35% probability of a recession within the next year.
Jim Cramer advises caution regarding Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), suggesting investors wait for a better entry point as it trades at 12 times earnings. While he acknowledges the bank's potential, he emphasizes that AI stocks may offer higher returns in a shorter timeframe. Cramer also critiques the past free trade policies, advocating for tariffs to revive American manufacturing jobs.
Asian shares plummeted on Monday, with Tokyo's Nikkei 225 dropping over 4% following a significant retreat on Wall Street, driven by fears of worsening inflation and a slowing U.S. economy amid escalating trade tensions. The S&P 500 experienced its worst day in two years, falling 2%, while consumer pessimism about future finances surged, raising concerns about a potential stagflation scenario. As markets brace for upcoming tariff announcements, oil prices and U.S. futures also declined.
Elon Musk confirmed that the US government has no plans to adopt Dogecoin, clarifying speculation surrounding his leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The initiative aims to enhance government operational efficiency by 15%, with Musk emphasizing a focus on reducing federal spending and streamlining operations. Critics have raised concerns about the power and oversight of DOGE, but Musk defended the team's actions as necessary reforms for a stronger financial position.
Global markets faced turmoil last week due to new 25% US auto tariffs, raising stagflation concerns amid mixed earnings in Hong Kong. The Nasdaq 100 is testing critical support levels, while commodity prices surged, with oil nearing $70 per barrel and gold hitting $3,086. Key economic data, including China PMI and US employment figures, are anticipated this week.
On March 30, 2025, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs affecting up to 25 countries, triggering a sharp decline in major cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin fell from $68,000 to $65,000, while Ethereum dropped from $3,800 to $3,600, with significant increases in trading volumes indicating heightened market volatility.Altcoins like Cardano and Solana also experienced notable price drops. Technical indicators suggest a bearish sentiment, with traders advised to adopt cautious strategies until market stabilization occurs. AI-related tokens mirrored this trend, reflecting the broader market's response to the tariff news.
Warren Buffett emphasizes the importance of investing during market downturns, advocating for a strategy of being "greedy when others are fearful." As stocks decline, valuations drop, presenting opportunities to buy quality companies at reasonable prices. Despite recent market fluctuations, Buffett's long-term approach encourages investors to seek smart buys rather than retreating.
ABB's Peter Voser warns that new US car import tariffs could impact sales and supply chains, urging Europe to strengthen ties with Asia. UBS faces tensions with the Finance Minister over capital requirements, while Stadler Rail invests $70 million to expand its US operations. Migros reports a historic decline in cooperative membership, and Swiss Airlines aims for improved punctuality this summer amid record profits. Concerns about civilian protection in Switzerland highlight significant preparedness gaps in case of an attack.
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Goldman Sachs Raises US Recession Risk Amid Stagflation Concerns and Tariff Uncertainty
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06:00 31.03.2025
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05:23 31.03.2025
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global markets react to trade tensions and economic concerns
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00:27 31.03.2025
trump's reciprocal tariffs trigger sharp declines in cryptocurrency markets
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Warren Buffett's investment strategy during market downturns offers valuable insights
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00:10 31.03.2025
swiss airline enhances economy service amid civil protection concerns and business challenges
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23:36 30.03.2025
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